New England Patriots: Quest for 19-0

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New England Patriots: Quest for 19-0

Post  Footballprofessor on Thu Nov 29, 2007 6:48 pm

Here's a hot topic: can the Patriots win out? Is 16-0 even possible? Better yet, is 19-0 attainable?

I'll give you my perspective, then I'd like to hear yours.

The Patriots are certainly a great team. I won't cast any doubt on that fact. They're #1 through 12 weeks in the Walters Trend Method Power Rankings by a wide margin. They've only trailed in four games, and only once by double digits (vs. Indy).

The biggest factor that I think will keep New England from having a perfect season is that their current pace is unsustainable. If you've seen any work on the blog, you'll know that I'm a big proponent of regression to the mean - the cyclical nature of the league. When a team exceeds it's average quality of play there is often an immediate correction in the following weeks.

In their last four games we've seen their two highest H/C games and their two lowest H/C games. That's a sign of inconsistency, which indicates a pending regression. I think Pittsburgh will beat them, and the Giants could win in week 17 as well.

What are your thoughts?

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